Research Roundup | COVID-19 and the Cultural + Creative Industries
* This post will be updated as additional research reports are released.
In the first three months of 2020, a lot changed. The cultural and creative industries (CCIs) across the world were among the first to be shut down or heavily restricted as cities and states worked quickly to try to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus that caused COVID-19. A global pandemic involving a highly contagious respiratory virus simply isn’t compatible with the events, festivals, productions and gatherings that lie at the heart of many of the CCIs and as a result, they’ll be among the last to recover. Some have speculated that we may never return to stadiums packed with screaming fans, while the more optimistic predict that if a vaccine or effective treatments become available we could be together again in fall 2021, if not earlier.
There’s so much we don’t know, but one thing is clear - COVID-19 and the related very necessary measures to contain it in most countries are having a devastating economic impact on the creative and cultural industries and, if left unmitigated, could lead to the (at least temporary) collapse of some sub-sectors such as live music and independent theatre. A number of countries such as Germany, France and, to a lesser extent, Canada are working to try to protect these industries and the culture they facilitate.
Here we’re going to share and summarise the research you shouldn’t miss if you’re a policy maker, city builder, advocate for the creative industries or someone trying to understand the economic power of the creative and cultural industries.
The Projected Economic Impact of COVID-19 on the UK Creative Industries
Oxford Economics | Projection modelling
Economic analysis company Oxford Economics recently released their economic projection modelling work looking at the impact of COVID-19 on the UK's creative industries. Where the creative industries had been growing at a much faster rate than the UK economy as a whole over the last ten years, the devastating impact of COVID-19 will reverberate far beyond the sectors directly involved.
Oxford Economics predicts that approximately 406,000 CI jobs will be lost in 2020 as a result of COVID-19, approximately 71% of them being self-employed roles including artists, technicians and freelancers. Self-employed workers both the most immediately impacted (1 in 3 reporting all current/future contracts were cancelled by end of March) and excluded from the UK government's initial relief efforts. Though self-employment can be precarious at the best of times, the scale of the impact as highlighted in this report demonstrates the need for greater protections for these important economic contributors especially if we want the creative industries to not only recover but grow.
The report also predicts that with the creative industries posted to lose £74 billion in turnover in 2020, the cost to the UK economy of COVID-19 related shutdowns in the creative industries is expected to be approximately £29 billion in GVA. With the creative industries heavily concentrated in London, the capital is set to lose £14.6 billion in GVA alone.
COVID-19 and cultural and creative sectors. Impact, policy responses and opportunities
OECD | Impact + Policy (webinar)
On April 20th, the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) hosted a webinar on 'COVID-19 and the Cultural and Creative Sectors: Impact, Policy Responses and Opportunities' featuring a range of data, policy and economic experts active in this space including Hasan Bakhshi (Executive Director, Creative Economy and Data Analytics, Nesta), Bernd Fesel (Managing Director, European Creative Business Network), and Justine Simons (Deputy Mayor for Culture and Creative Industries, London & Chair of World Cities Culture Forum).
Over the course of the conversation, they consider the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on the creative economies of a range of counties while taking note of subnational distribution of the creative industries.
The Locked-Down Blues: Canadians, Live Music, and the Pandemic
Abacus Data, Music Canada | Polling information
Public opinion polling by Abacus Data done in April and commissioned by Music Canada has helped shine a light on how Candians are consuming music during the pandemic and when they plan to return to pubs, venues, concert halls and festivals to consume live music once current restrictions are lifted.
While many Canadians (35%) are listening to more music than before the pandemic, this doesn't necessarily mean that they're in a rush to get back to live music with roughly a quarter of respondents saying they may never return and 33-47% of respondents saying it'll take six months or for them to feel comfortable seeing live music again. It's also worth noting that 50% of respondents report that they may never feel comfortable travelling to the United States for a music event again.
As could be expected, live music lovers for whom gig-going is part of their identity are more willing to take a chance, but without a strong cadre of casual fans, it will be much more difficult for the music industry to bounce back.
It's not all bad news however, with 30% of respondents watching a livestream performance during lockdown. It's not a perfect substitute for the real thing, but may prove to be a stronger stand-in than initially expected.
COVID-19 Impact on the Cultural and Creative Industries in Germany
The Federal Government’s Centre of Excellence for the Cultural and Creative
Industries | Projection modelling
Germany's Centre of Excellence for the Cultural and Creative Industries has released its projections for the impact of the country's COVID-19 related economic shut down on its cultural and creative industries (CCIs).
They estimate that German CCIs will experience turnover loss of between €21.7 and €39.8 billion, with more than half of those losses concentrated in the second quarter of the fiscal year (April -June). They predict that their performing arts sector will be most greatly impacted, with 100% of operators in that space experiencing turnover losses of 35-75%, followed by flm (98%) and music (62%). They also predict that the cultural industries will be more greatly impacted than the creative industries (where advertising and the software/gaming industries are the heavy hitters) within the German economic landscape.
National Independent Venue Association Impact Fact Sheet
National Independent Venue Association | Infographic report
The National Independent Venue Alliance has released the results of its survey on the impact of coronavirus on independently-owned small and medium-sized music venues in the United States revealing that up to 90% of venues surveyed could have to close their doors permanently as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
The report highlights that for American venues, which aren't able to tap into public funding to the same extent as their counterparts in many European countries for example, revenues will remain at zero indefinitely - potentially through 2021 - while bills continue to pile up with little to no relief in sight.
With artists deriving, on average, 75% of their income from live events, such a collapse in the live music sector will have devastating effects beyond the venues themselves. In addition to artists, promoters, freelance bookers & technical workers, and partner breweries could all face collapse alongside local venues.
The fact sheet released by the NIVA also demonstrates the challenge of tour routing even as some jurisdictions relax the rules around gathering which currently prohibit live music, such a primary market becoming unavailable due to a localised outbreak knocking out dates for the secondary markets surrounding them.